What are the odds of "Japan wins 1st Half"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 1%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 1% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Japan wins 1st Half

1%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,811). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will the S&P 500 be above 7654.9999 on Oct 1, 2026 at 10am EDT?90%What will any host or reporter say during ABC World News Tonight originally scheduled for 1%Gold price up in next 15 mins?37%Will Guillermo Rodriguez and their partner be eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Seaso14%Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 1, 2026?99%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXINTLFRIENDLY1H-26OCT01JPNECU-JPN" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Japan wins 1st Half - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXINTLFRIENDLY1H-26OCT01JPNECU-JPN">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.