What are the odds of "Will the S&P 500 be above 7744.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 85%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 85% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the S&P 500 be above 7744.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

7,745 or above

85%

implied chance of YES▲ 3 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 85 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

82¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

84¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 83.7% of the time against a 82c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 332 settled markets across all categories in the 80-89c band (we do not yet hold enough other history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 84% of the time (n=332). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.