What are the odds of "Will the S&P 500 be above 7634.9999 on Sep 18, 2026 at 4pm EDT?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 99%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 99% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the S&P 500 be above 7634.9999 on Sep 18, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

7,635 or above

99%

implied chance of YES▲ 43 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 99 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 92% of the time (n=721). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.