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Dominick Mosejczuk wins

Dominick Mosejczuk
54%
implied chance of YES
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 54 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
53¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
55¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 55.4% of the time against a 53c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,342 settled sports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=3,396). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.