What are the odds of "Noah Schachter wins"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 53%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 53% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Noah Schachter wins

Noah Schachter

53%

implied chance of YES▲ 35 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 53 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

35¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

36¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 35.7% of the time against a 35c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,639 settled sports markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=3,881). The price implies 53%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Full Game: Over 233.5 points scored46%Full Game: Over 234.5 points scored45%Portland wins by over 6.5 points47%Full Game: over 21.5 points?92%Full Game: Over 239.5 points scored54%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXITFMATCH-26OCT30BICSCH-SCH" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Noah Schachter wins - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXITFMATCH-26OCT30BICSCH-SCH">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.