What are the odds of "Real Madrid wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 2nd Half"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 1%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 1% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Real Madrid wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 2nd Half

Real Madrid wins the 2H by more than 1.5 goals

1%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

29¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

26¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 25.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 29c. Based on 2,478 settled sports markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=2,049). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.