Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled

Trump (3+ times)

1%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

59¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

57¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 56.9% of the time against a 59c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 197 settled other markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,004). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

FedEx Open de France: Jeff Winther wins2%Gold price up in next 15 mins?98%FedEx Open de France: Guido Migliozzi wins2%Will Rick Devens be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Sep 25, 2026?33%Will Taylor Brown be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Sep 25, 2026?1%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXLASTWORDMENTION-26SEP21-TRUM" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell originally scheduled - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXLASTWORDMENTION-26SEP21-TRUM">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.