What are the odds of "Softwood lumber PPI above 290 before 2027?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 62%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 62% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Softwood lumber PPI above 290 before 2027?

Above 290

62%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 62 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

75¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

73¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 73.2% of the time against a 75c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 97 settled other markets in the 70-79c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 65% of the time (n=2,477). The price implies 62%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Both Teams To Score62%Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Dec 1, 2026?42%Softwood lumber PPI above 190 before 2027?99%Gold price up in next 15 mins?55%Will average **gas prices** be above $4.3100?17%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.