Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least

James Talarico, 5.5+ pts

21%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 21 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

29¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

19¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-8¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 18.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 29c. Based on 263 settled other markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 26% of the time (n=3,210). The price implies 21%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Both Teams To Score40%Both Teams To Score76%Both Teams To Score13%Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 41%Marc Marquez wins99%

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