Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at leas

Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

25%

implied chance of YES▲ 4 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 25 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

26¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

18¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-6¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 18.2% of the time, and the crowd is charging 26c. Based on 258 settled other markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 25% of the time (n=3,049). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at leas19%Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at leas27%Both Teams To Score50%The Only Living Pickpocket in New York Rotten Tomatoes score?99%Both Teams To Score6%

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