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yes Indianapolis,yes Jonathan Taylor: 2+,yes Josh Downs: 40+,yes Stefon Diggs: 25+,yes Jon

yes Indianapolis,yes Jonathan Taylor: 2+,yes Josh Downs: 40+,yes Stefo
50%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 50 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
50¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
57¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+5¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 57.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 50c. Based on 309 settled other markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=3,409). The price implies 50%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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