no Buffalo wins by over 7.5 points,no Akron wins by over 6.5 points,yes Over 28.5 points,y
no Buffalo wins by over 7.5 points,no Akron wins by over 6.5 points,ye
48%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 48 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
48¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
49¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 48.6% of the time against a 48c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 327 settled other markets in the 40-49c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 44% of the time (n=4,590). The price implies 48%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026Y54FMEXDORQAOYBX-VWG67HJ5O">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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