Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Economics

Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29689.99 at the end of Aug 11, 2026 at 2pm EDT?

29,690 or above

43%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 43 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

57¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

56¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 56.3% of the time against a 57c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 341 settled markets across all categories in the 50-59c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 48% of the time (n=370). The price implies 43%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Economics markets

Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29729.99 at the end of Aug 11, 2026 at 4pm EDT?20%Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30169.99 at the end of Aug 11, 2026 at 4pm EDT?1%Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30179.99 at the end of Aug 11, 2026 at 4pm EDT?1%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 12, 2026?46%Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86 USD/Bbl on August 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT97%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXNASDAQ100U-26AUG11H1400-T29689.99" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29689.99 at the end of Aug 11, 2026 at 2pm EDT? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXNASDAQ100U-26AUG11H1400-T29689.99">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.