What are the odds of "Will the NASDAQ-100 be above 30880.45 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 71%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 71% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Economics

Will the NASDAQ-100 be above 30880.45 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Above 30880.45

71%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 71 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

67¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

76¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+7¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 76.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 67c. Based on 51 settled economics markets in the 60-69c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 7c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 76% of the time (n=1,800). The price implies 71%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Economics markets

Will the brent crude oil close price be above 113.99 USD/Bbl on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 P5%Will the brent crude oil close price be above 111.99 USD/Bbl on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 P7%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026?28%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026?51%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 88.00 and 88.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 16, 202626%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXNASDAQDUD-26OCT12H1600-T30880.45" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the NASDAQ-100 be above 30880.45 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXNASDAQDUD-26OCT12H1600-T30880.45">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.