Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Economics

Will the natural gas close price be above 3.315 USD/MMBtu on October 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM E

Above $3.315

55%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 55 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

See the full field for this event →

More live Economics markets

Will the natural gas close price be above 3.075 USD/MMBtu on October 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM E99%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 8, 2026?27%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 8, 2026?50%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 8, 2026?70%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 89.00 and 89.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 9, 2026?15%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXNATGASD-26OCT0817-T3.315" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the natural gas close price be above 3.315 USD/MMBtu on October 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM E - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXNATGASD-26OCT0817-T3.315">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.