What are the odds of "San Antonio wins by over 14.5 points"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 48%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 48% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

San Antonio wins by over 14.5 points

48%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 48 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

48¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

43¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 42.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 48c. Based on 2,920 settled sports markets in the 40-49c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=4,245). The price implies 48%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Milwaukee wins43%Tampa Bay wins58%Blake Ellis wins31%Isaac Becroft wins69%Philadelphia wins by over 12.5 points10%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.