What are the odds of "SMU wins"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 58%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 58% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

SMU wins

SMU

58%

implied chance of YES▼ 1 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 58 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

58¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

54¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 53.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 58c. Based on 1,317 settled sports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 55% of the time (n=1,929). The price implies 58%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open Men's Singles?58%Grigoriy Lomakin wins53%Will Alex Michelsen win the US Open Men's Singles?2%Florida A&M wins1%Dong Ju Kim wins39%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP07SMUFSU-SMU" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="SMU wins - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP07SMUFSU-SMU">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.