What are the odds of "Christian McCaffrey: 120+ rushing yards"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 6%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 6% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Christian McCaffrey: 120+ rushing yards

Christian McCaffrey: 120+

6%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 6 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

9¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

7¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 6.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 9c. Based on 1,547 settled sports markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,955). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Columbia wins99%Penn wins1%Tampa Bay wins51%Cleveland wins50%Charleston Southern wins1%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXNFLRSHYDS-26OCT19WASSF-SFCMCCAFFREY23-120" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Christian McCaffrey: 120+ rushing yards - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXNFLRSHYDS-26OCT19WASSF-SFCMCCAFFREY23-120">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.