Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Oct 2026 be at least 5?

At least 5

58%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 58 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

6¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

6¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 6.4% of the time against a 6c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,017 settled markets across all categories in the 0-9c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=3,635). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Politics markets

What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in St. Clair County, Michigan originally s5%Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.8 on Oct 24, 2026?69%Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.7 on Oct 24, 2026?5%What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Macon, Georgia originally scheduled for2%Will there be at least 6 presidential actions in the week of Oct 18, 2026?99%

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