ContractTax
DashboardMarketsEdgeCombosTaxes
☆
Live odds / Politics

Will Ralph Norman finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Sena

Ralph Norman
1%
implied chance of YES▼ 30 today
Recorded price path
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 12% of the time (n=222). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 11 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
More live Politics markets
What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?3%What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?78%What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?62%What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?5%What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?90%
Embed this on your site
<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXPRIMARYPLACE-SCRSENS26-1-RNOR" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Ralph Norman finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Sena - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXPRIMARYPLACE-SCRSENS26-1-RNOR">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.
Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.