What are the odds of "Will it rain in Chicago on Nov 1, 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 22%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 22% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Weather

Will it rain in Chicago on Nov 1, 2026?

Chicago

22%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 22 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

24¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

26¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 25.5% of the time against a 24c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 3,200 settled markets across all categories in the 20-29c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 26% of the time (n=3,200). The price implies 22%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Weather markets

Will the temp in Miami be above 80.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 9am EDT?40%Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 56.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 9am EDT?3%Will it rain in Albuquerque on Nov 1, 2026?84%Will it rain in New Orleans on Nov 1, 2026?39%Will it rain in Milwaukee on Nov 1, 2026?22%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.