What are the odds of "Will it rain in Lexington on Oct 17, 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 29%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 29% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Weather

Will it rain in Lexington on Oct 17, 2026?

Lexington

29%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 29 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

32¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

34¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 34.2% of the time against a 32c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 3,132 settled markets across all categories in the 30-39c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 25% of the time (n=2,939). The price implies 29%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Weather markets

Will it rain in Chicago on Oct 16, 2026?99%Will it rain in St. Louis on Oct 16, 2026?99%Will it rain in Miami on Oct 16, 2026?35%Will the maximum temperature be <73° on Oct 16, 2026?1%Will the maximum temperature be 93-94° on Oct 16, 2026?1%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.