What are the odds of "Will it rain in Phoenix on Oct 21, 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 78%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 78% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Weather

Will it rain in Phoenix on Oct 21, 2026?

Phoenix

78%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 78 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

79¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

76¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 76.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 79c. Based on 1,839 settled markets across all categories in the 70-79c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 76% of the time (n=1,839). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Weather markets

Will the maximum temperature be 69-70° on Oct 21, 2026?6%Will it rain in San Francisco on Oct 21, 2026?69%Will it rain in Providence on Oct 21, 2026?10%Will the temp in New York City be above 68.99° on Oct 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?22%Will the temp in Miami be above 81.99° on Oct 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?99%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.