What are the odds of "Will it rain in Austin on Oct 29, 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 47%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 47% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Weather

Will it rain in Austin on Oct 29, 2026?

Austin

47%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 47 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

54¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

56¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 56.2% of the time against a 54c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 3,789 settled markets across all categories in the 50-59c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=4,360). The price implies 47%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Weather markets

Will it rain in Houston on Oct 28, 2026?8%Will it rain in Miami on Oct 28, 2026?37%Will it rain in San Antonio on Oct 28, 2026?13%Will it rain in Austin on Oct 28, 2026?17%Will the maximum temperature be 82-83° on Oct 28, 2026?1%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.