What are the odds of "How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 87%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 87% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Weather

How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027?

Above 10 inches

87%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 87 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

97¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

94¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 93.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 97c. Based on 1,513 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 86% of the time (n=1,429). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Weather markets

Will it rain in Philadelphia on Oct 12, 2026?99%Will it rain in Washington DC on Oct 12, 2026?99%Will it rain in Trenton on Oct 12, 2026?99%Will it rain in New York City on Oct 12, 2026?1%Will it rain in Boston on Oct 12, 2026?99%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.