What are the odds of "Will there be a recession in 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 6%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 6% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will there be a recession in 2026?

Starts

6%

implied chance of YES▼ 2 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 6 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

7¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

5¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 4.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 7c. Based on 147 settled other markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,004). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

More live Other markets

HEBC Hamburg vs Dortmund: HEBC Hamburg To Advance1%Gold price up in next 15 mins?88%Will Danielle Alvarez be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?7%Will Ryan Gerard win the Omega European Masters?8%Will Thriston Lawrence win the Omega European Masters?1%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXRECSSNBER-26" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will there be a recession in 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXRECSSNBER-26">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.