Will Fairness for Girls Constitutional Amendment pass?
Fairness for Girls Constitutional Amendment
93%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 93 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
93¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
92¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 92.0% of the time against a 93c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 721 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 92% of the time (n=721). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.