What are the odds of "Will the temp in Miami be above 83.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 11am EDT?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 1%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 1% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Weather

Will the temp in Miami be above 83.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 11am EDT?

84° or above

1%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 7% of the time (n=2,170). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Weather markets

Will the temp in New York City be above 55.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 12pm EDT?13%Will the temp in Miami be above 82.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 12pm EDT?39%Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 56.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 12pm EDT?87%Will the temp in New York City be above 56.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 12pm EDT?2%Will the temp in New York City be above 57.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 12pm EDT?2%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXTEMPMIAH-26OCT3111-T83.99" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the temp in Miami be above 83.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 11am EDT? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXTEMPMIAH-26OCT3111-T83.99">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.