What are the odds of "Will the temp in New York City be above 45.99° on Nov 8, 2026 at 3am EST?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 98%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 98% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Weather

Will the temp in New York City be above 45.99° on Nov 8, 2026 at 3am EST?

46° or above

98%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 98 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

98¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

94¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 93.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 98c. Based on 1,812 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,812). The price implies 98%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Weather markets

Will the maximum temperature be <70° on Nov 8, 2026?1%Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Nov 8, 2026?1%Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Nov 8, 2026?61%Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Nov 8, 2026?41%Will the minimum temperature be >48° on Nov 8, 2026?1%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.