Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 17, 2026 be above 1283.70?

Above 1283.70

1%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

34¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

32¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 31.7% of the time against a 34c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 63 settled other markets in the 30-39c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 9% of the time (n=479). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 8 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 17, 2026 be above 1273.70?1%Gold price up in next 15 mins?39%Will Dai Dai rank #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated Aug 17, 99%Will both teams score?69%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.