What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Nassau County, New York?

57%

implied chance of YES▼ 18 today

The crowd may be overcharging for this

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 56.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 59c. Based on 411 settled markets across all categories in the 50-59c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 56% of the time (n=411). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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