What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Lubbock, Texas originally scheduled for

88%

implied chance of YES▲ 6 today

The crowd may be overcharging for this

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 85.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 88c. Based on 1,549 settled markets across all categories in the 80-89c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 86% of the time (n=1,549). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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