Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Daytona Beach, Florida originally sched

Veteran

38%

implied chance of YES▲ 10 today

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 38 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

41¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

43¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 43.4% of the time against a 41c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 4,388 settled markets across all categories in the 40-49c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 30–39¢ have gone on to settle YES 35% of the time (n=3,372). The price implies 38%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

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