Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2030 be above 4.5%?

Above 4.5%

50%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 50 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

50¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

57¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 56.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 50c. Based on 197 settled other markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 5c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 55% of the time (n=1,929). The price implies 50%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will average **gas prices** be above $6.0800?99%Both Teams To Score99%Both Teams To Score99%Both Teams To Score43%Will Dai Dai rank #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated Sep 18, 64%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXU3EOY-31JAN10-T4.5" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2030 be above 4.5%? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXU3EOY-31JAN10-T4.5">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.