Live odds / Sports

Fight goes the distance?

Fight goes the distance

40%

implied chance of YES▲ 25 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 40 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

54¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

56¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 55.5% of the time against a 54c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,439 settled sports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=4,062). The price implies 40%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.