What are the odds of "Will USDCHF be Above 0.823 at 5pm ET on Aug 21?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 8%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 8% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Crypto

Will USDCHF be Above 0.823 at 5pm ET on Aug 21?

Above 0.823

8%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 8 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

8¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

8¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 8.4% of the time against a 8c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 526 settled markets across all categories in the 0-9c band (we do not yet hold enough crypto history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the crypto curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 8% of the time (n=526). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Crypto markets

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.