Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

What will JD Vance say during midterm rally in Rome, New York originally scheduled for Nov

Illegal Alien

46%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 46 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

37¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

35¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 35.1% of the time against a 37c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 3,413 settled markets across all categories in the 30-39c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 44% of the time (n=4,453). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

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