What are the odds of "Will Italy be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 5%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 5% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Will Italy be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?

Italy

5%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 5 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

7¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

10¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 10.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 7c. Based on 67 settled sports markets in the 0-9c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 5%, so historically this band has come in about 9 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Will Sofia Costoulas win the Costoulas vs Hibino: Qualification Round 1 match?84%Will Andrey Rublev win the Rublev vs Tabilo: Semifinal match?59%Will Alejandro Tabilo win the Rublev vs Tabilo: Semifinal match?43%Will Max Alcala Gurri win the Alcala Gurri vs Villanueva: Semifinal match?42%Will Nao Hibino win the Costoulas vs Hibino: Qualification Round 1 match?16%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXWCHOST-2038-ITA" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Italy be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXWCHOST-2038-ITA">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.