What are the odds of "Will Korea Republic qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 83%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 83% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Sports

Will Korea Republic qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?

Korea Republic

83%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 83 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

86¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

87¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 87.3% of the time against a 86c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 1,132 settled sports markets in the 80-89c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 86% of the time (n=1,446). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Sports markets

Over 6.5 runs scored49%Akasha Urhobo wins3%Ashley Trevino wins1%Bree Olsen wins99%Delonte West wins1%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXWCQUAL-30-KOR" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Korea Republic qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXWCQUAL-30-KOR">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.