Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 21, 2026?

51%

implied chance of YES

Priced about right

Contracts like this one have settled YES 57.6% of the time against a 59c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 309 settled markets across all categories in the 50-59c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 58% of the time (n=309). The price implies 51%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXWTI-26JUL2114-T82.49" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 21, 2026? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXWTI-26JUL2114-T82.49">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.