Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026?

46%

implied chance of YES▲ 20 today

Priced about right

Contracts like this one have settled YES 42.9% of the time against a 45c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,276 settled markets across all categories in the 40-49c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=2,276). The price implies 46%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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