Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.00 by Sep 30, 2026?

2%

implied chance of YES▼ 39 today

The crowd may be overcharging for this

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 42.9% of the time, and the crowd is charging 48c. Based on 2,276 settled markets across all categories in the 40-49c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,004). The price implies 2%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

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