Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Economics

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 76.00 and 76.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 24, 2026

$76.00 to $76.99

4%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 4 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 14% of the time (n=146). The price implies 4%, so historically this band has come in about 10 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Economics markets

Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 20, 2026?38%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 20, 2026?71%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 20, 2026?81%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 20, 2026?58%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 20, 2026?80%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXWTIW-26JUL2414-B76.50" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 76.00 and 76.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 24, 2026 - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXWTIW-26JUL2414-B76.50">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.