Trade Checker

The moment-of-decision tool. Enter the price and what you think the true probability is, and get the fee-adjusted expected value, the win rate you need to break even, a Kelly-sized position, and, if you’ve run the Trade Report, a grade against your own track record in this price range. All in your browser, nothing uploaded.

The trade
Favorable
Your estimate gives this trade about +8.0¢ of expected value per contract after fees. If your 70% read is well-calibrated, this is a take.
The math
MARKET IMPLIES
60%
YOU SAY
70%
RAW EDGE
+10.0 pts
TAKER FEE
2.0¢
EV / CONTRACT (NET)
+8.0¢
BREAKEVEN WIN %
62.0%
You need to win 62.0% of the time at 60¢ (fee included) just to break even. Your estimate of 70% is above that bar. Fee assumes taker; posting a limit order as a maker reduces it.
How much? (Kelly)
KELLY FRACTION
10.5%
SUGGESTED SIZE
169 contracts
CAPITAL AT RISK
$104.78
Kelly sizes the bet to your stated edge; fractional Kelly trades some growth for much smaller drawdowns. If your probability estimate is off, Kelly is off, which is exactly why most disciplined traders run half or quarter.
Run your history through the Trade Report first and this checker will also grade the trade against your own track record in this price range and category.
This tool takes your probability estimate at face value; it cannot tell you whether that estimate is right. Not financial advice.

Why check before you trade?

A prediction-market price is a probability. Profit comes from disagreeing with it correctly: paying 60 cents for something you rightly believe is 70% likely earns about 10 cents of expected value per contract, before costs. The two things traders most often skip are the costs, taker fees quietly raise your breakeven several points on mid-priced contracts, and the sizing, where an edge bet too large gets wiped out by an ordinary losing streak before it can pay off.

The checker does that arithmetic in one place, and the history check adds the part no generic calculator can: whether you specifically have made or lost money in this price band and category before. A positive-EV trade in a range where you have historically bled is a signal to slow down, not necessarily to skip, but to demand more edge.

Prefer the pieces individually? See the standalone EV calculator, breakeven win rate, position sizing, and risk of ruin calculators.