Ethereum's Kalshi ladders track ETH's spot price up or down over each short window, with liquidity second only to Bitcoin. Below are the live ETH ladders closing soon, followed by what ETH’s own settle history says about how often these windows go up, and how often a move keeps going.
ETH often moves in sympathy with BTC, so its short-window direction can echo Bitcoin's, something the settle history on this page lets you check rather than assume.
ETH ladders, live
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What ETH’s history says · measured from 35 de-noised settlements
SETTLED UP
37.1%
of windows finished higher
DOWN, THEN DOWN AGAIN
65.0%
after a down window (n=20)
Measured from our own harvested settlements with far-from-spot strikes removed. These are past frequencies, not predictions. Fees and the bid/ask spread work against short-horizon strategies.
Common questions
How do Kalshi Ethereum markets work?
Kalshi lists Ethereum (ETH) as up/down markets that settle every 15 minutes, plus hourly markets with strikes at set price increments. A 15-minute up market pays out if ETH's reference price is higher at the close than at the start of the window. You buy YES if you think it finishes up and NO if you think it finishes down, at a price between 1 and 99 cents that reflects the market's implied probability.
Are Ethereum up/down markets predictable?
Over the short windows these markets cover, ETH direction is close to a coin flip, which is why prices sit near 50 cents right before settlement. Our settle history on this page shows the measured up rate and how often a move continued, but past frequencies are not a forecast, and fees plus the spread mean a naive coin-flip strategy loses money over time.
What are the hourly Ethereum strike markets?
The hourly markets ask whether ETH will be above a specific price at the top of the hour, with many strikes listed at set increments. Strikes far from the current price almost always resolve the same way, so we exclude those from the direction statistics and keep only the genuinely contested at-the-money strike, so the odds measure direction rather than strike distance.