Solana's up/down markets cover a faster, higher-beta coin, so the short-window swings are often larger than Bitcoin's. Below are the live SOL ladders closing soon, followed by what SOL’s own settle history says about how often these windows go up, and how often a move keeps going.
Higher volatility means SOL windows resolve up or down more decisively, but thinner liquidity can widen the spread you pay to enter.
SOL ladders, live
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What SOL’s history says · measured from 36 de-noised settlements
SETTLED UP
33.3%
of windows finished higher
DOWN, THEN DOWN AGAIN
68.2%
after a down window (n=22)
Measured from our own harvested settlements with far-from-spot strikes removed. These are past frequencies, not predictions. Fees and the bid/ask spread work against short-horizon strategies.
Common questions
How do Kalshi Solana markets work?
Kalshi lists Solana (SOL) as up/down markets that settle every 15 minutes, plus hourly markets with strikes at set price increments. A 15-minute up market pays out if SOL's reference price is higher at the close than at the start of the window. You buy YES if you think it finishes up and NO if you think it finishes down, at a price between 1 and 99 cents that reflects the market's implied probability.
Are Solana up/down markets predictable?
Over the short windows these markets cover, SOL direction is close to a coin flip, which is why prices sit near 50 cents right before settlement. Our settle history on this page shows the measured up rate and how often a move continued, but past frequencies are not a forecast, and fees plus the spread mean a naive coin-flip strategy loses money over time.
What are the hourly Solana strike markets?
The hourly markets ask whether SOL will be above a specific price at the top of the hour, with many strikes listed at set increments. Strikes far from the current price almost always resolve the same way, so we exclude those from the direction statistics and keep only the genuinely contested at-the-money strike, so the odds measure direction rather than strike distance.