Bitcoin is the most-traded coin on Kalshi, and its up/down ladders are the deepest and fastest-moving of the crypto markets. Below are the live BTC ladders closing soon, followed by what BTC’s own settle history says about how often these windows go up, and how often a move keeps going.
Because BTC carries the most volume, its 15-minute markets tend to price closest to a true coin-flip near settlement, which makes the far-from-spot hourly strikes especially lopsided.
BTC ladders, live
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We’re still building enough clean BTC settle history to publish odds here. The live ladders above update in real time meanwhile.
Common questions
How do Kalshi Bitcoin markets work?
Kalshi lists Bitcoin (BTC) as up/down markets that settle every 15 minutes, plus hourly markets with strikes at set price increments. A 15-minute up market pays out if BTC's reference price is higher at the close than at the start of the window. You buy YES if you think it finishes up and NO if you think it finishes down, at a price between 1 and 99 cents that reflects the market's implied probability.
Are Bitcoin up/down markets predictable?
Over the short windows these markets cover, BTC direction is close to a coin flip, which is why prices sit near 50 cents right before settlement. Our settle history on this page shows the measured up rate and how often a move continued, but past frequencies are not a forecast, and fees plus the spread mean a naive coin-flip strategy loses money over time.
What are the hourly Bitcoin strike markets?
The hourly markets ask whether BTC will be above a specific price at the top of the hour, with many strikes listed at set increments. Strikes far from the current price almost always resolve the same way, so we exclude those from the direction statistics and keep only the genuinely contested at-the-money strike, so the odds measure direction rather than strike distance.