What are the current odds for Next German federal election winner??

AfD 60%, CDU/CSU 37%, SPD 5%, Greens 3%, The Left 1%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Politics

Next German federal election winner?

Live Kalshi odds · 7 outcomesOne winner

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 108%, a 8-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

60¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

63¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 63.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 60c. Based on 1,323 settled markets across all categories in the 60-69c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 1c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 63% of the time (n=1,323). The price implies 60%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, AfD at 60¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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