What are the odds of "Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 5%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 5% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

SPD

5%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 5 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

10¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

14¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 10c. Based on 1,326 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 3c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=1,004). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.