Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 103%, a 3-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
20¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
25¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+3¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 25.4% of the time, and the crowd is charging 20c. Based on 3,129 settled markets across all categories in the 20-29c band (we do not yet hold enough world history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 3c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the world curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 25% of the time (n=3,129). The price implies 20%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, November 1 at 20¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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